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THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN COMMODITY & EQUITY

Thursday, August 25th, 2016 | Author: Arup Kishore Dey | Category: blog


  We all know that the cycle of economy is moving depends on its 2 wheels i.e. DEMAND & SUPPLY. So basically its relationship between how much (quantity) of product or service is desired by buyers/the amount of product people are willing to buy at a certain price & how much the market can offer.   And when we see into any business, we find its sole aim i.e. MAKING PROFIT. So in any business there are many components are present, like Market demand, Production/Manufacturing cost, Profit after sale etc. And apart from service sector in terms of production we always need Raw materials.   Hare the word “COMMODITY” appears in front of us. Today what we know about the market is what media tells us. But today what is forecast may be quite different from its actual scenario. There could be something vital which is not so much projected. The COMMODITY is one of those areas. If someday stock market fells in a big manner, there will be a distress in our media( as they are very much oppressed about the market movement). But when it comes to the Commodity, we don’t actually hear enough about it.   But what would be the reason behind it?. Does Commodity is less important than the Equity market’s ups & down? So now let’s see some recent practical example. On 21st April 2016 we have faced a news that Indian rubber output falls to the lowest in around two decades. All India Rubber Industries Association (AIRIA) has stated that domestic natural rubber (NR) production has hit multi-year low causing a supply crunch in the domestic market.  The rubber consumption too dipped by 3 % from the peak level of a year ago. During fiscal 2016, the rubber prices had plummeted by as much as 27% from the beginning of the year before recovering. The prices plunged to the lowest in nine years at Rs 91 per kg in February. In that situation The Kerala Government has decided to continue the price support scheme for small rubber growers, which ensured a price of Rs 150 per kg to cushion them from price crash.   Kerala accounts for around 90% of the rubber cultivated in India and majority of the growers fall in the small category having two hectares or less. And also in terms of volume production we are quite behind from our Asian competitors. And our rubber industry still facing an additional threat of importing natural rubber from those country.  Top Rubber Producing Countries in the World in 2015 

RankCountryProduction (Metric Tonnes)
1.Thailand3,348,897
2.Indonesia3,088,400
3.Malaysia996,673
4.India891,344
  Though the global scenario is not so healthy. The Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries (ANRPC), accounting for 90 % of global supply & according to the report of ANRPC the total Natural Rubber production during the seven month ended July 2016 is estimated at 5.899 million tonnes, up 0.2%  year-on-year. The production went up in Thailand, Indonesia, and Vietnam but fell in China, Malaysia and India. Rubber industry in India is dominated by small & medium sector as out of 5500 rubber products manufacturing units, 90% are MSMEs. Rubber units spread across the country manufacture around 35000 different rubber products which find usage in Auto, Defense, Healthcare, Agriculture and in Various other critical sectors.  But at present the prices had risen to Rs 136 per kg in Cochin & Kottayam. So within these few months we have seen this price volatility of Rs- 91 to Rs- 136 in this particular commodity sector.   But in this scenario those companies will be getting the benefit whose production depends on Natural Rubber as a raw material. For example- TIRE MANUFACTURING COMPANIES like APOLLO, BKT,TVS tires etc….. but its quite obvious that these companies are not getting this benefit immediately. First they have to finish their old rubber stocks(Higher price) then they get the new rubber stocks with huge discount & automatically the margin of the company’s profit  will be increased in a large manner.   And if we consider at our present condition, from last many days we have been regularly hearing that the Good Monsoon effect is everywhere in our economy & also there is an additional positive effect of 7th Pay Commission(though it will be implemented at the end of August 2016). Recently we have also seen many Auto sector companies like Hero Honda motocorp, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki have shown their huge growth & it’s also reflected in their stock price. & recently few Tire Manufacturing company like Balkrishna industries or BKT(Highway tire manufacturer) & Apollo tire have declared that they are entering in 2 wheeler tire business. Now see the timing of their entry in 2 wheeler tire sector. When the Auto sector is booming & we all know this sector is directly associated with tire manufacturing sector.   So at present the situations for these tire companies are – The demands are growing & simultaneously the price of the raw materials (Natural Rubber) collapsed in its 19 years low. So we can easily predict that what would be the positive impact in their balance sheet in upcoming days. But it also depends on the company, how can they grab this opportunity? What they are going to do in this situation? & if the management is not good & they are unable to taking advantage of low priced raw materials then they will fail in this profit making competition. & a smart investor will also take this advantage by shorting rubber & make a good profit out of it & eventually buying the shares of some good Tire Manufacturing companies.  CONCLUSIONSo that’s why each of every Commodity having a link in Equity market or we can say most of the stocks listed in exchanges have got some based on some Commodity.     Source: http://rubberboard.org.in/rubberprice.asp?url=earlyrubberprice.asphttp://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/indian-rubber-output-falls-to-the-lowest-in-around-two-decades/articleshow/51923549.cms       

Sound Investment Policy An Investor Should Follow

Monday, May 2nd, 2016 | Author: Tarun Auddy | Category: Basic Finance


 

An investor should follow the  listed basic investment principles for a sound investment and hope for a good return in the future.

1.   The sector in which the COMPANY deals.

2.  The economic factors that will influence the  sector.

3. The financial statements of the company. ie.  Fund and Cash flow of the company.

4 The Ratio Analysis.ie. C.RATIO ,  EPS   PAT  ,ROI etc

5  The sales of the company ,its trend.

6 The profit the company is earning annually.

7 The flow of dividend the company announces annually.

8  Whether the company is going for expansion or req0uires money to pay off its past loans.

9  The future of the company as regards to the competition it may face from its peer companies.

10  The Management of the company  ,its efficiency  experience and qulifications.

Does Financial Statement of a company reveal everything?

Thursday, April 28th, 2016 | Author: Tanmoy Naskar | Category: Fundamental Analysis


  FINANCIAL STATEMENT DOES NOT REVEAL ALL INFORMATION ABOUT A COMPANYFinancial Statement states how sound and successfully a business is generating its profit. It provides us with the information about how the operations and profit of the business is growing. But Financial Statement sometimes does not  reveals all information of a company. Following are the information which may be misstating and misleading from the investors point of view in a Financial Statement:  

Financial Statement Revealed

Financial Statement Revealed

1. Based on Historical Cost:All transactions are recorded at historical cost in the balance sheet are considered less informative. Thus, the balance sheet could be misleading as most of the items are not recorded at market price.2. Time Constraint:The financial statement may not contain financial results and cash-flows for a large number of consecutive financial years. So, this can give us incorrect and brief view about the financial results.3. Not always comparable with peers:Since different companies in an industry follows different accounting policies and practices, it is difficult to compare the results of different companies. Some companies follows cash basis of accounting while others follow accrual basis of accounting.4. It is subjected to manipulated figures:Due to pressure for performing excellent and outstanding results, management of a company may cook the books deliberately. This can be detected when the company’s reported result exaggerate the industry benchmark.5. No discussion of non-financial issues:A Company’s financial results maybe sound, whereas its presence in corporate social responsibility may not be  addressed  or might be overlooked or ignored in the financial statement.     The best example is the Satyam Computer Services scam which is a corporate scandal, worked in the year 2009 in which the company chairman Mr. Ramalinga Raju confessed that the company books and financial statement were falsified and cooked up which resulted in siphoning of funds, instead of utilizing it for the purpose of business.   Thus, we must read the financial statement very carefully before we make any investment decisions. We can also test out the economy, sector / industry, company analysis in which the company operates to verify whether the company is weak or strong. We can also perform fundamental analysis and check whether the company security is overvalued or undervalued thereby making a prudent investment decision.
Financial Statement

Financial Statement

 

Quality of The Management is the First Thing That You Should Check While Evaluating a Company

Tuesday, April 26th, 2016 | Author: Shekhar Joshi | Category: Fundamental Analysis


   

 Quality of the management is the first thing that you should check while evaluating a company

Stock Market has always been a financial style status of the era we live in. We hear people bragging about making a fortune out of it but it’s not as easy as it seems. It also has lessened many zero`s from people’s balance sheet. So, we should be more careful before betting on a stock. Though we have got wonderful results after checking various parameters of company like profitability, industry growth, market share, standalone growth of company in comparison to its previous balance sheet but what we usually don’t stress much about is of the management running the entire show. We have seen many renowned companies which scored well in many areas of finance but their share prices plummeted or crashed after a scam perpetrated by management popped out. To ensure that our safety belts are in place, we need to keep in mind various points while running a check on management:

1) First of all we should vouch for the competence of management or persons presiding board or those who have power to take strategic decisions. They must have the requisite knowledge and experience about the company’s object, mission and the industry to which it belongs. What adds more to their credibility are recognized degrees of qualification and exceptional education which makes them stands apart from other managers.   2)We should also check that if any person from management is involved in any legal battle whether civil or criminal. And if not, had he been sentenced or penalized in recent past. Negative result reflects loss of credibility of management.   3) It’s also important to find out the number of years for which management has served the company  It has been seen that longer relationship of management with organization tends to reflect their honest and one-pointedness in efforts.   4) Top level executives are being paid as huge amount in compensation for running the organization and taking it to the next level. We just need to check whether they are being paid on fixed basis or their compensation is being tied to the growth of the organization; For example, compensation linked to the profit an organization makes.   5) Insider trading also is usually being fueled by management or from persons at higher levels of organization because they know some information which is not available in public realm. And thus they make fast money out of it. We should keep an eye on these transactions too.   Profitability does show good management endeavor but it cannot provide character certificates at all. So, it’s better to keep a questioning mind while analyzing a company even though it posts good results. There are no straight forward rules to make a security check on management but above mentioned points can serve you good in your efforts.

Porter`s Five Force Model Enable Us to Evaluate a Company in Depth

Tuesday, April 26th, 2016 | Author: Shekhar Joshi | Category: Fundamental Analysis


   

portersAt some point of age almost everyone thinks about investing in stock market usually because of higher returns or as a shortcut to become rich. But on the contrary, stock market turns out to be battle field where majority is being marred by their lack of preparedness. To counter this, one of the safest ways to earn returns in stock market is to become an investor and to watch your investments grow rather than becoming a trader for a short term period. For selection of a stock yielding higher return, one can follow various tools. Amongst them is one of the most popular and effective tool is to apply porters five force model to evaluate industry and the company to invest in.

  Porters five force model was developed by Harvard Professor “Michael Porter” in 1980 and was published in his book “Competitive Strategy; Technique for Analyzing Industries and Competitors.” His model focuses on five forces which makes or breaks a particular industry or company.  1) Barriers to Entry: It simply means that how easily can a new venture enter into an industry and eat out profits which were earlier enjoyed by old players so, probability of earning better returns in future gets hazy for these companies. Only those industries are being saved which have high barriers to entry like huge capital expenditure, patents or copyrights, governments regulations or geographical barriers. Higher cost of entry sums up to lower competition and substantial market share leading towards good profit.  2) The rivalry among the existing competitors: Presence of large numbers of rivals also poses threat to company’s profitability in a long run. Heavy competition forces companies to reduce costs for keeping their market shares intact and results in lower profits. So, it’s always better to choose industry where market players are scarce.  3) Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Certain industries are heavily backed upon their supplier’s whims. In case there is a monopoly and an organization does not have any other way to procure raw materials. So firstly, an organization loses its bargaining power ending up paying heavy costs and secondly, lack of raw material can impact its future viability.  4) Bargaining Power of Buyers: Sometimes an industry supplies to fixed or few buyers like in Defense Sector. Here again, organization sustains at the mercy of its purchasers and can go out of business in case where buyer no longer requires their product.  5) Threat of Substitutes: Similar products also sometimes poses threat if they can satisfy needs of buyers and are cheap as well. So, in order to sustain marketability of a product they should be unique in their product range. lesser substitutes provide higher market share and flowing profits.   An investor can be in a much better position to choose and invest in a company by going through all the above mentioned points and can create wealth in long run. SWOT Analysis along with Porter`s Model enhances the capability of selecting a company, providing handsome returns in a long run and thus advisable.


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  •   4, Brabourne Road, 4th floor,
          Passport Office Building,
          Kolkata 700001
          West Bengal, India
  •   +91 3095 6603 / +91 9674 322 333
  •   info@kredentacademy.com

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